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Try rotating the shoulder using FK mode and then reposition the forearm (FK on the elbow or switch back to IK, whatever works best for you.) Choose Copy Pose and then click Refit Pose. If Refit Pose doesn't improve the match, paste the copied pose and tweak manually if necessary. Copy the tweaked pose as a 'backup' and try tracking backwards from this point, up to around where the last preceding good frame is. This should work.
Next, go the the last good frame, step ahead one frame, paste the copied pose and click Refit Pose. Try to continue tracking forward from here.
At this point it's a good idea to tweak the Trajectory Filtering to smooth any bumps. Just slide it to another value and slide it back.
I use the above method (or a variation of it) when I run into a difficult spot but, from what I can tell, simply adjusting the shoulder and using Refit Pose might solve your problem.
Hope this helps.
G.
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